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Posts Tagged ‘THREAT’


Article by Terry Hecht

Dual Threat Sports is another handicapping service that I had read about on one of the gambling forums. Tim of Dual Threat Sports and I exchanged several emails discussing his sports handicapping service. The following are my email exchanges with Dual Threat Sports:

I would like to find a sports service for the upcoming NFL and college football season. At your convenience could you please tell me about your service?

Dual Threat Sports: In 2002 a friend of mine from Las Vegas introduced me to an acquaintance of his who was an avid sports gambler. We exchanged emails and I began sharing my college football selections with him. If we won, he paid me. If we didn’t win, he didn’t pay. Over the next 8 years my email client list steadily grew to the point that I took the next step and launched the Dual Threat Sports website.

What sports do you specifically handicap? Which is your best sport?

Dual Threat Sports: I focus on college football and English Premier League soccer. These are the only two sports I handicap. College football is my favorite sport and my # 1 passion, and up until last season it was also my best sport in terms of handicapping success.

What distinguishes your service from other (handicapper) services?

Dual Threat Sports: Specialization. 100% of my handicapping time and energy is spent reading, preparing for, handicapping and watching college football and EPL soccer.

SPECIALIZATION? A man after my own heart. I loved this answer.

What would I get with your service that I couldn’t or wouldn’t get with another service?

Dual Threat Sports: The first thing that comes to my mind is soccer. You just don’t find many American’s who handicap European soccer.

I don’t know that you couldn’t or wouldn’t get good customer service with someone else, but because I am a small, one-man operation, I believe my clients like the personalized service I can provide as opposed to a bigger service who is more interested in “marketing”.

In your opinion what is the most important aspect of being a good sports handicapper?

Dual Threat Sports: Correctly estimating probabilities in order to put yourself into situations where you make positive expected value wagers.

What capping methods do you use to determine which teams you are going to recommend to your clients?

Dual Threat Sports: A lot of my approach is based on statistics. Fundamental handicapping if you will. I also adhere to situational handicapping, especially in college football. I believe emotion plays a big part in college football. I’m not a big advocate of trend handicapping, but I do look at trends, more so for confirmation than for selection purposes.

Do you wager on your own picks?

Dual Threat Sports: Absolutely. In fact that is really the origin of the Dual Threat Sports service. I have always handicapped and wagered on all my own selections. The sports service evolved out of that process.

How long have you been handicapping sports?

I have been handicapping sports for as long as I can remember, but I didn’t seriously start handicapping until after I graduated from college. My service has been around since 2002, albeit in strictly email form. The Dual Threat Sports website was launched last year.

As you can see Tim’s initial answers were pretty short and concise. But he opens up a little more with some of the follow-up questions.


Follow-up questions Part I:

I am considering your service and would like to know if you ever offer your service for free on a trial basis?

Dual Threat Sports: Yes, I have randomly offered the service for free. Last year I offered the final 4 weeks of EPL and the Champions League final for free. I was lucky enough to go 16-9 which included a BEST BET on Barcelona in the Champions League final. So that produced a lot of interest in the soccer service.

Do you provide detailed write-ups for each selection?

Dual Threat Sports: Until last year I never did a single write-up explaining my reasons for wagering on a game. If anyone asked why we were on such and such I had no problem explaining it to them via email. However last year, since it was the website’s first year, I figured it would be a good idea to add some write-ups. I won’t be doing that again. It just took up a lot of my time that would have been better utilized handicapping games.

In your previous email you mentioned that up until last season college football was your best sport in terms of handicapping success. Can you explain what happened last season?

Dual Threat Sports: I had my first losing season in college football since I started the service. It was embarrassing.

WHAT? Another handicapper that actually admits to losing? Will wonders never cease?


Follow-up questions Part II:

Can you explain in more detail why you lost last year in college football?

Dual Threat Sports: I believe a combination of things lead to last years losing CFB season. First of all, I started out very poorly in what I consider my bread and butter and that is college football totals. The previous 6 seasons I had hit just above 60% on over 600 college football totals. I thought I had the winning “formula” for totals and I hit them hard the first few weeks of the season. I couldn’t have been more wrong. I was too overconfident with my past results and I failed to adjust properly when I started losing. I was so frustrated and embarrassed that I gave everyone of my new clients full refunds. I also gave them the remainder of the college football season and EPL season (even if they hadn’t subscribed) for free.

This is the first handicapper that I have spoken with that has a money back guarantee.

I believe that I also had more than my normal share of negative variance and was never able to get into a good rhythm until bowl season. I did have a solid EPL season and was at least able to recover a large portion of everyone’s losses (including my own).

Can you expand upon your answer where you say “Correctly estimating probabilities” is, in your opinion, the most important aspect of being a good sports handicapper?

Dual Threat Sports: What I mean to say is that handicapping is not about picking winners as much as it is about associating probabilities with various outcomes. Therefore, in general, as a handicapper, you shouldn’t be trying to pick winners, you should instead be trying to correctly estimate these probabilities. Nobody can predict that a team will win, or how many points a team will score, they can only predict the probability of a team winning, or a team scoring x amount of points.

Therefore as a handicapper I put a lot of emphasis on math and statistics when trying to find an advantage wager. And by successfully combining good statistical analysis (estimating probabilities) with more subjective factors like situations, motivation, match-ups, etc, I believe I can gain an edge over the market and in turn create +EV wagers, which in the long-term will produce more winners than losers.

If you want to know more about statistics as they relate to sports handicapping, sports modeling and +EV wagering, go to the SBR Forum’s Think Tank. It has a lot of great information and there are some people over there that are downright sick when it comes to some of this stuff. One guy even wrote a book.


Follow-up questions Part III:

Thank you for the additional information. So are you telling me that you offer a money back guarantee?

Dual Threat Sports: Actually I don’t make any guarantees. I just felt so bad that I had let everyone down. These people were paying me for my so-called “expert” advice and I wasn’t producing the results anticipated. I certainly didn’t deserve to be compensated for that. I also gave everyone free service because even after I returned their payment, they still had lost money on the wagers I recommended. So I don’t offer any guarantees per se, but I will always make this type of restitution if I don’t feel I have done the job I am being paid to do.

If it is not too much trouble, could you tell me what you believe is your biggest weakness as a sports handicapper?

I wish I had thought of this follow-up question last week. It would have been great to see what some of these other handicappers had to say. I will ask this question from now on and also see if I can get some of the cappers who I have already interviewed to answer it.

Dual Threat Sports: Staying off what I refer to as “marginal” games. For example, I may really like a particular team but after going through my capping procedures I determine that the team has a 50/50 chance of covering (a -110 bet). Thus a -EV bet. I still make the wager and of course the results are usually disastrous. You do this a handful of times throughout the year and it adds up. I believe I have definitely improved over the past several years, but every now and than I’ll still make a wager where after the result I say to myself “what were you thinking?”

Also, just out of curiosity, how did you come to cap soccer?

Dual Threat Sports: On my website I explain in detail how I came to handicap EPL soccer, which has become the fastest growing portion of my business. A lot of American gamblers are starting to add soccer to their wagering arsenal (pardon the EPL pun). However the vast majority of them know very little about the beautiful game so that has created a nice niche for me.

http://www.dualthreatsports.com .

My name is Terry and I love to gamble on sports. When I graduated from college I thought about becoming a professional gambler. In fact I first learned the word oxymoron from a college professor when I told her I wanted to become a successful gambler. After a few years of getting hammered I decided that a real job was probably a better decision than pursuing gambling as a living.

But I never stopped betting on sports and still enjoy a little action to this day. Like everyone else I hate losing, so I have spent a lot of my free time trying to become a better sports gambler. Or at the very least, learn as much as possible to minimize the damage. So I will attempt to pass on what I have learned, hopefully learn a lot more from others and in the end …… break even.

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